India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) stands at the forefront of the nation’s external intelligence efforts. Established in 1968, its primary mission was initially to counteract China’s influence. However, over the years, RAW’s focus has shifted towards its perennial rival, Pakistan. The ongoing tensions, particularly in the disputed region of Kashmir, continue to fuel covert operations between RAW and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). While the historical animosity lingers, experts suggest that Afghanistan is emerging as a new battleground for these intelligence agencies.
The History of RAW:
Until its establishment in 1968, India’s external intelligence efforts were handled by the Intelligence Bureau (IB), responsible for both internal and external intelligence. The need for a dedicated external agency became evident after India’s shortcomings in the 1962 border war with China, where intelligence failed to detect Chinese buildup for the attack. In response, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) was founded, initially focusing on countering China and later expanding its mandate to include Pakistan. Led by its first chief, Rameshwar Nath Kao, until his retirement in 1977, RAW achieved early successes, notably India’s victory in the 1971 war with Pakistan and covert assistance to the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa. However, despite these triumphs, RAW has faced criticism for its perceived lack of coordination with domestic intelligence, weak analytical capabilities, and a persistent lack of transparency. The agency’s evolution has been marked by shifts in its focus under different prime ministers, contributing significantly to India’s foreign policy successes over the last four decades.
The Structure and Function of RAW:
The inner workings of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) remain veiled in secrecy, shrouded by a deliberate lack of public information. Initially comprising 250 personnel and a modest budget of about $400,000, RAW has undergone substantial expansion, with its current staffing and budget figures closely guarded. Despite estimates suggesting around eight to ten thousand agents and a budget of $145 million in 2000, the true scale remains undisclosed. Unlike intelligence agencies in many other countries, RAW reports directly to the Prime Minister rather than the Ministry of Defense, with the chief holding the designation of secretary (research) in the Cabinet Secretariat, within the Prime Minister’s office. While some RAW officers belong to the specialized Research and Analysis Service, others serve on deputation from various services like the Indian Police Service. The agency’s two primary objectives at its inception were to enhance intelligence capabilities regarding Pakistan and China and conduct covert actions in East Pakistan. Over time, its objectives expanded to include monitoring political and military developments in neighboring countries, influencing the supply of military hardware to Pakistan, and supporting liberation movements during the Cold War. Opinions on RAW’s influence on India’s foreign policy differ among experts, with some asserting minimal impact, while others argue that the head of RAW directly provides input and analysis to the head of state. The agency’s historical liaison with Israel’s Mossad further reflects its strategic approach, aimed at gaining insights into West Asia and North Africa and learning counterterrorism techniques. Despite its critical role in shaping India’s geopolitical landscape, RAW faces persistent criticism for its lack of transparency, coordination challenges with domestic intelligence agencies, and questions surrounding its overall effectiveness. The intricate and covert nature of RAW’s operations raises ongoing debates about the balance between secrecy and accountability in the realm of national intelligence.
RAW’s Role in Geopolitics:
From its inception, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) played a pivotal role in shaping India’s geopolitical strategy. Initially designed to counteract China’s influence, RAW’s objectives expanded over the years to include a comprehensive monitoring of political and military developments in neighboring countries. The agency actively sought to influence the supply of military hardware to Pakistan, particularly from European countries, the United States, and China. Beyond reactive measures, RAW contributed significantly to India’s foreign policy successes, such as the creation of Bangladesh in 1971, India’s increasing influence in Afghanistan, the accession of Sikkim to India in 1975, safeguarding India’s nuclear program, and supporting African liberation movements during the Cold War. However, debates persist among experts regarding the extent of RAW’s influence on India’s foreign policy, with opinions ranging from minimal impact to direct input and analysis provided to the head of state by the head of RAW. The agency’s historical collaboration with Israel’s Mossad underscores its strategic approach, leveraging partnerships to gain insights into West Asia and North Africa and acquiring counterterrorism techniques. Despite its undeniable impact on regional geopolitics, RAW faces ongoing criticism for its perceived lack of transparency, coordination challenges with domestic intelligence agencies, and questions about its overall effectiveness.
Relations With the CIA:
RAW’s historical ties with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) trace back to the agency’s creation, with the CIA assisting in its establishment. The collaboration between RAW and the CIA began even before RAW’s formal existence, notably with the training of Establishment 22, a covert organization formed from Tibetan refugees in India, to execute deep-penetration operations in China. While the early collaboration showcased a degree of cooperation, RAW became wary of the CIA’s operations with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) during the Soviet-Afghan War. Despite reservations, RAW sought the CIA’s assistance in counterterrorism training, highlighting the complex nature of international intelligence cooperation. However, grievances persist, with RAW claiming limited information on Pakistan from the United States, while Washington expects intelligence on Afghanistan in return. The intricate dance of collaboration and suspicion characterizes the complex relationship between RAW and the CIA, reflecting the intricate web of alliances and rivalries in the realm of global intelligence.
Covert Actions in Other Countries:
India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has a storied history of engaging in covert actions beyond its borders, influencing regional dynamics and contributing to India’s strategic interests. One notable instance was RAW’s significant role in the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Beyond providing intelligence, RAW played a crucial role in training and arming Mukti Bahini, a group of East Pakistanis advocating for the formation of Bangladesh. This covert support was instrumental in the eventual success of the liberation movement.
RAW’s involvement extended to the northeastern state of Sikkim, facilitating its accession to India in 1975. In Myanmar, the agency provided military assistance to groups opposed to the pro-China regime, such as the Kachin Independence Army. However, it was RAW’s support for the Tamil separatist group, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in Sri Lanka that garnered significant criticism. The agency aided in training and arming the LTTE in the 1970s. Yet, as the LTTE’s terrorist activities escalated in the 1980s, including alliances with separatist groups in India’s Tamil Nadu state, RAW withdrew its support. This shift culminated in India deploying peacekeeping troops to Sri Lanka in 1987, with the subsequent assassination of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 by an LTTE suicide bomber.
In Afghanistan, RAW has maintained a close liaison relationship with the Afghan intelligence agency, KHAD, since the 1980s. This collaboration was particularly aimed at monitoring Sikh militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas. During this period, RAW, KHAD, and the Soviet KGB established a trilateral cooperation. RAW valued KHAD’s assistance in tracking the activities of Sikh militants. The agency’s involvement in Afghanistan has continued, with experts suggesting that Afghanistan may be emerging as a new battleground for RAW, particularly as tensions with Pakistan persist.
In Pakistan, RAW has been accused of supporting various separatist movements, including alleged support for Khalistani militants in the 1980s. In response to perceived Pakistani support for insurgent groups in Punjab, RAW established two covert groups, Counter Intelligence Team-X (CIT-X) and Counter Intelligence Team-J (CIT-J), in the mid-1980s. These groups were reportedly responsible for carrying out terrorist operations inside Pakistan, prompting negotiations between RAW and the ISI to establish rules of engagement.
While RAW’s covert actions have at times been strategic and aligned with India’s interests, they have also faced criticism for contributing to regional tensions and conflicts. The agency’s role in shaping the geopolitical landscape beyond its borders continues to be a subject of scrutiny and debate.
Strengths of RAW:
India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) boasts a robust set of strengths that have solidified its standing as a formidable intelligence agency. With a legacy of operational triumphs, including pivotal roles in the 1971 Indo-Pak war and the creation of Bangladesh, RAW has demonstrated exceptional operational experience. The agency’s adaptability is evident in its evolution from primarily countering China to addressing diverse geopolitical challenges. Its international liaisons, particularly with Israel’s Mossad, contribute to valuable insights and counterterrorism techniques. RAW’s covert operations, while controversial, have effectively advanced specific national objectives, showcasing its geopolitical influence on the world stage.
Weaknesses of RAW:
Despite its strengths, RAW grapples with notable weaknesses that warrant critical examination. The agency faces persistent criticism for its perceived lack of coordination with domestic intelligence and security agencies, resulting in potential inefficiencies and gaps in information sharing. The veil of secrecy surrounding RAW raises concerns about transparency and public accountability. Analytical weaknesses have been identified, impacting the agency’s ability to interpret complex geopolitical situations and intelligence data. Suspicions of infiltration by other intelligence agencies, such as the CIA, pose security risks, and the controversial nature of some covert actions, like support for groups such as the LTTE, has led to unintended consequences and strained international relations. These weaknesses highlight the delicate balance intelligence agencies must maintain between secrecy and accountability in the pursuit of national security objectives.
